Bush powers Saints to second straight victory

Football Betting Lines

10/23/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After starting the season 0-4, the New Orleans Saints are treating every game like a must-win.

That's just fine for Reggie Bush, who ran for 54 yards and added five receptions for 19 yards and the game's biggest score as New Orleans outlasted Atlanta, 22-16, on Sunday.

The game wasn't pretty, but the Saints pulled it out. On the flip side, New Orleans looked bad enough for even the most optimistic fan to note that the Falcons have been utterly dreadful this season and the Saints still just barely got by them.

What does that say for a team which is now two wins shy of getting back to .500 at the midpoint of the season? Are these the real New Orleans Saints, now riding the momentum of back-to-back victories and getting the production out of Bush that they expected all along? And will they be content with the fact that, for now, they only have to be a little bit better than the other team?

Or is this the same team that looked nearly unrevivable a few short weeks ago, consistently trumped by the numbers on the scoreboard and plagued by the old mantra, "Everything that can go wrong will go wrong?"

"I think we have played better football and as a result we have won a couple of games," said head coach Sean Payton. "There is a lot to improve in without even looking at the tape. We have to be consistent on a number of things.

"I think it is a work in progress. The thing about this league is that you are what your record says you are. Fortunately, we have been able to get a couple of wins, but we have a long way to go. Our players understand that."

LATE GAME HEROICS

The Falcons, trailing by a point heading to the fourth quarter, took a 16-14 lead on Morten Andersen's 21-yard field goal with 10:22 remaining in the contest.

The Saints answered with an efficient 69-yard, 11-play drive, capped by a four-yard swing pass from Drew Brees to Bush with 5:04 remaining. Bush caught the ball at the two-yard line, shrugged off three defenders (and a would-be tackle by Falcons' cornerback Lewis Sanders) and dove across the goal line to put New Orleans back on top for good.

Bush wasn't done, however, as he swept around the right end and dove for the pylon to complete the two-point conversion, giving the Saints a 22-16 edge with about five minutes to play.

"We were just trying to catch the defense off guard," said Bush. "We ran it quick. We really didn't want to give them a chance to get set. They were bringing personnel when we were getting set. That obviously helped us out a lot. We caught them off guard. As far as the two-point conversion, it's a play we normally run quite a bit. We hadn't run it all game. It was the perfect call in the right situation."

Then, after the Falcons punted with less than two minutes left, Bush sewed up the victory with a seven-yard run that gave the Saints a first down and enabled them to run out the clock.

NEAR-DOMINANT "D"

The defense kept the Saints in the game for a third straight week, giving up only a couple of big plays while Atlanta managed just three field goals and one touchdown.

The Saints didn't blitz nearly as often as they did a week ago at Seattle, but they got enough pressure on Atlanta's Byron Leftwich and Joey Harrington, finishing with three sacks (credited to Charles Grant, Brian Young and Kendrick Clancy), while strong safety Roman Harper led the way with six tackles.

Leftwich went 15-of-23 for 145 yards and a touchdown but was knocked out of the game in the second quarter with a sprained ankle, while Harrington finished 12-of-18 for 128 yards.

The Saints defense also didn't force any turnovers, but the Falcons did lose some ground on three fumbles, and each time, they were eventually forced to punt.

"We knew it was a game that was going to come down to the wire," said Saints linebacker Scott Fujita, who finished with four tackles. "We expected it to be a tough game, one of those days where you come early and stay late. Our defense today stepped up and made plays when we had to. When it counted and we had to make plays we did. It starts with the guys up front, those guys played huge today, they put a lot of pressure in the quarterback's face, and that was something that we needed to get done."

WILL THE REAL DREW BREES PLEASE STAND UP?

After a strong performance against the Seahawks last week, Brees completed just 22-of-34 passes for 219 yards, with two TDs and one interception against Atlanta. He also failed to establish a rhythm throughout the game, as the Saints converted just 4-of-12 attempts on third-down.

While Brees' performance wasn't alarmingly bad, he has now tossed a league- leading 10 interceptions this season and has a QB rating of 69.1.

Still, Brees tried to accentuate the positives after Sunday's victory, including a 37-yard touchdown pass to Devery Henderson in the first quarter.

"That was big. Especially early on, it was a way to get this game started," Brees noted. "We got in great field position on the punt return and went three-and-out but then came back the next time and got into one of those situations where we expected them to be playing the coverage that they did and we were able to get Devery up through a hole. Obviously he made a nice catch and it was a great way to get the whole thing started. It was a big play touchdown that we've been talking about for the last few weeks and getting back to the big plays that we used to make."

UP NEXT

In a clash of two teams going in opposite directions, the Saints are heading to San Francisco to battle the 49ers, who won their first two games of the season but have dropped their last four.

This trip could be another step for New Orleans to get back in a mediocre NFC South race, but they need Bush to remain a prominent threat on the ground and through the air.

The last time these two teams met, the Saints were riding a three-game win streak that catapulted them into the playoffs. They also had the services of Deuce McAllister, who ran roughshod over the Niners then, but won't be a factor now.

This could be another ugly game for New Orleans, which looks to be in for a tightly-contested battle.

"They are coming off of a tough loss and going out to San Francisco to play is difficult," Payton added. "It's loud and they have a lot of history and tradition and have played well traditionally at home. The focus starts with us, and doing all the little things specifically that give us the best chance to win. We know we are playing a team that is hungry for a win. They started off fairly strong and have slowed down of late, but it is going to be a challenge for us going on the road, we will have our work cut out for us."

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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