Badgers and Illini duke it out in crucial Big Ten affair

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11/16/2011 - Champaign, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 15th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers need to win their final two games of the regular season to claim a spot in the inaugural Big Ten Conference Championship Game, and first up is this Saturday's road clash with the Illinois Fighting Illini.

Wisconsin kept possession of Paul Bunyan's Axe for the eighth straight year as they had very little trouble disposing of the Minnesota Golden Gophers last Saturday, winning by a final score of 42-13. Wisconsin ranks among the top five in the country in both scoring offense and scoring defense this season, and the team is 17-2 in regular season games played after November 1 in head coach Bret Bielema's six years at the helm.

Bielema knows his team can't look past any opponent or do too much scoreboard watching at this point, "We have to concentrate on being in the moment. That's the way we will do it."

Illinois opened the season at 6-0, but has lost four straight, the most recent of which being last Saturday's 31-14 home setback to Michigan. Wisconsin is the third straight ranked opponent for the Illini, and the team is just 4-20 versus Top-25 foes under current head Ron Zook.

Illinois owns a narrow 36-34-7 lead in the all-time series with Wisconsin, but the Badgers won the most recent meeting (27-17) in Madison back in 2008.

Wisconsin RB Montee Ball ran for 166 yards and two TDs in last weekend's thrashing of Minnesota, giving him 27 scores for the year in establishing a new Big Ten single-season record. James White also had a solid day out of the backfield, rushing 14 times for 87 yards against the Golden Gophers, while QB Russell Wilson was nearly perfect in completing 16-of-17 passes for 178 yards and a season-high four TDs. WR Nick Toon caught eight balls for 100 yards and two scores.

In all, the Badgers piled up 461 yards of total offense, compared to a mere 156 for the Gophers. By controlling the ball, UW claimed a near 10-minute advantage in the time of possession battle. Mike Taylor led the Badger defense with 13 tackles, eight of which were solo efforts. The Gophers were held to a scant 51 passing yards and Wisconsin allowed just nine first downs, but came up with just one sack and only one turnover.

Wisconsin is averaging 45.2 points in Big Ten play this season, exactly what it averaged last year when it had the second-best scoring offense in league history. Furthermore, the team is averaging 7.48 yards per play, trailing only Houston (8.27) and Baylor (7.52) right now nationally. Last year, with the most prolific offense in school history, the Badgers averaged 6.7 yards per play. A year after leading the country and setting a school record with just nine turnovers, the Badgers are tied for the national lead with just six giveaways this season.

Ball leads the nation with 27 TDs and has scored at least two touchdowns in every game this season. Wilson leads the nation in passing efficiency at 201.6, which would break the NCAA record currently held by Hawaii's Colt Brennan if the season ended now. He is also on pace to set NCAA marks in yards per pass attempt (11.1) and yards per play (9.9).

Defensively, the Badgers permit just 15.8 ppg on typical outputs of 134.1 ypg rushing and 146.3 ypg passing. They have given up just 18 TDs in 10 games, but have logged 22 sacks and come away with only 14 turnovers. Taylor and Chris Borland are both over 100 tackles for the season, with Borland notching 15 TFL -- more than twice that of Taylor who is his closest teammate.

Illinois generated just 214 yards of total offense in last week's loss to Michigan, with a mere 37 coming on 33 rushing attempts (1.1 ypc). QB Nathan Scheelhaase went 16-of-31 for 170 yards with no TDs and one INT, and the Illini lost a pair of fumbles. Scheelhaase was sacked four times, but when he was able to stay on his feet, he found WR A.J. Jenkins eight times for 103 yards -- his fifth 100-yard receiving game of the season.

Scheelhaase was obviously disappointed with last week's outcome, "You don't really know what went wrong. Obviously, execution, errors and some penalties early on put us behind the chains, which you don't really want to do and unfortunately we did."

DB Tavon Wilson led the UI defense with 11 tackles, an INT and a fumble recovery, but Michigan churned out 223 yards and three TDs on ground, averaging nearly five yards per carry. Illinois came into the game as the Big Ten's top rushing defense (102.9 ypg). DL Whitney Mercilus notched another sack, giving him a national-best 12.5 for the season.

Through 10 games, Illinois is averaging 25.0 ppg while giving up 18.6 ppg. Scheelhaase has the passing game turning out 201.4 ypg, and he has completed 62.3 percent of his throws with 12 TDs and six INTs. Jenkins is far and away the team's top option down the field, having amassed 76 catches for 1,133 yards and seven scores. The UI run game boasts a pair of 500-yard rushers in Jason Ford (518 yards, seven TDs) and Scheelhaase (515 yards, six TDs).

Over on the defensive side of the ball, foes are averaging just 114.9 ypg on the ground against the Illini, and the unit as a whole has registered 32 sacks and 19 turnovers. Jonathan Brown leads the team in tackles with 78, among them being 14.5 TFL and 4.5 sacks.

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After all the trouble that’s ensued since Braylon Edwards allegedly punched one of LeBron James’ homeboys in the face at a club, the Cleveland Browns have sent away their last remaining player of worth to the New York Jets. This is a great move for Dirty Sanchez and all, but it’s even better for the Knicks. Now Donnie Walsh can say, “You get to haunt Braylon Edwards with your posse if you sign here!” next summer.

Putting that aside for a moment, the move is a clear indication that the new-look Jets are gunning for the Super Bowl this year. I don’t think that New York thought that Dirty Sanchez was going to be such a rock star. With a 75.2 passer rating that was killed against the Jets, Sanchez is doing an admirable job of managing games and putting the Jets in a position to win. The defense has been the major story in New York thus far, but the acquisition of Braylon Edwards makes this offense loaded with talent that can dent any defense…as long as Dirty Sanchez continues his meteoric rise.

Thus far, Edwards has been a non-factor in the NFL piling up just 139 receiving yards on 10 catches. He has yet to find the endzone, and with the Browns mired in the most unsexy quarterback controversy of all time (Anderson vs. Quinn...yawn), there going nowhere fast. Edwards is two seasons removed from a career year which saw him catch 80 passes for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns when the Browns were the spread killing monsters of 2007. In 2008, injuries slowed the receiver down to just 873 yards and three touchdowns though he played in all 16 games.

So that being said, we really don’t know if Braylon Edwards is just a flash in the pan, or a legit threat. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he is a prototypical receiver. But he’s also shown a strange, and unwarranted, talent for dropping passes. Lining up opposite Jericho Cotchery, a speed demon with 23 catches, 356 yards and a single touchdown, may give Braylon the open looks he needs. A change of scenery may also rejuvenate the star receiver.

In return, the Browns will receive Chansi Stuckey, online football betting a special teams player you’ve never heard of and a pair of draft picks. That’s a tall order for a guy whose only real value right now is in his name, and it shows no promise to the Browns that they can rebuild around those acquisitions. Braylon was the only reason to hope for the Browns to go 3-14 SU this year. Without him, they don’t have a single guy on offense that can scare any team.

For the Jets, it’s a response to the pounding that they took at the hand of the Saints. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have averaged around 4.0 yards per carry each on the ground, but striking a fair balance between the passing and rushing attacks in New York has been a struggle. You have to believe that the trio of Dustin Keller, Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards will give Sanchez the weapons he needs to unleash through the air. Theoretically, that would open up holes for the rushing game. But the proposed public option health care plan works in theory too. We need to see the proof in the pudding before we start loading up mega bucks on the New York Jets to take the AFC.

The one wrinkle in this whole thing is that Braylon could very well be suspended by the league for disciplinary action due to his “brawl” with LeBron’s friend. If that’s the case, the Jets may have to bench him for a few games leaving them with a somewhat depleted receiving corps for a few games. Also, this is a guy who gets in fights with people at clubs. New York may not be the best place for him. Just sayin’.

The Jets have a long week before they meet the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football Betting in a virtual pick ‘em game. Braylon’s excess baggage may be a distraction, and his curiously low production may be what we should be expecting of him overall, but for the Jets, taking a chance to strike gold is well worth it. At the end of the year, they can simply just blame it on their rookie quarterback.

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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?

Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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