A Little Warm comes up hot in Delaware

Horseracing Betting Lines

06/29/2010 - Stanton, DE (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Three months after finishing second in the Louisiana Derby, A Little Warm got back into action Tuesday afternoon at Delaware Park. The three-year-old colt returned to racing in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race as the 3-2 morning-line favorite.

Ridden by John Velazquez, A Little Warm ran second behind Miner's Reserve on Delaware's main track. Miner's Reserve, trained by Nick Zito and ridden by Jeremy Rose, took the four horse field up the backstretch and around the final turn.

Sent off as the 3-5 favorite, A Little Warm finally drew even with the 6-5 second choice at the top of the stretch. The favorite notched his second win of the year and the third of his career with a 2 1/4-length victory over Miner's Reserve. A Little Warm stopped the timer at 1:43.60.

There was no show wagering due to the small field. A Little Warm returned $3.20 and $2.10, Miner's Reserve paid $2.60.

"We did not feel our horse was 100 percent going into the race today," said trainer Tony Dutrow, "and for him to give us a performance like that and to fight as hard he did to beat a really nice horse, I think we have to be really happy and looking forward to his future."

Owned by Edward Evans, A Little Warm was originally considered for the Preakness Stakes on May 15. However, he was withdrawn from consideration about a week before the Triple Crown race following an unsatisfactory endoscopic examination.

A Little Warm began 2010 by winning the $100,000 Spectacular Bid Stakes on January 9 at Gulfstream Park. He then came up second to D'Funnybone in the $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes at the South Florida track.

Tuesday's win put A Little Warm's career earnings at $308,880 in eight starts.

Dutrow has the colt nominated to the Barbaro Stakes for three-year-olds at Delaware Park on July 10. However, it appears A Little Warm will rejoin the top echelon of three-year-olds this summer.

"I think right now, Mr. Evans is looking at the Jim Dandy (July 31) at Saratoga for his next start," noted Dutrow.

The Jim Dandy is the traditional prep race for the Travers at Saratoga at the end of August. One day after the Jim Dandy is the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park.

In 2009, Rachel Alexandra won the Haskell with Summer Bird in second. Summer Bird came back to win the Travers and eventually be voted the year's champion three-year-old colt.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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